As national security professionals and Airmen, we live in a world of risk and uncertainty. What will the enemy do? Will this technology work as expected? Will I have enough manning next year? When we flip a coin, we know the odds…but, how do you think about risk when the exact probabilities are unknowable?How confident should I be in my predictions? Dylan Evans provides decision making tools applicable to doctors, weather forecasters, intelligence professionals, military planners, and anyone else who doesn’t know exactly what will happen tomorrow.