Crowded Orbits: Conflict and Cooperation in Space

James Clay Moltz

Overview: James Moltz has delivered a 226-page treatise that, in his words, “offers general readers and students an understanding of the competing trends of completion and cooperation in the past and present of human space activity, while also asking questions about the future” (vii). Because the book does not assume space expertise, or even prior knowledge, it is an excellent resource for building an educated space foundation for Airmen as we deal with the complexity of peer completion, multi-domain operations, and the coming Space Force. Moltz provides thought-provoking discussion and questions throughout. The following are additive discussion items aimed at Airmen and the issues we as an Air Force must come to grips with in the current environment.

• In his introduction Moltz asks, “…will countries be able to keep the peace as space becomes more crowded (1)?” This question sets the tone for discussions of this book and on the nature of space competition, which has propelled the US to create a Space Force. Will the world remain at peace in space? Will the development of an independent Space Force aid or exacerbate peace efforts?
• “Getting into Orbit,” chapter 1, synopsizes the history of man’s efforts to enter space. His history also includes the danger of orbital debris and argues the efforts to weaponize space have failed or shown that they will exacerbate the debris problem. How should his conclusions affect the way we stand up a Space Force aimed at maintaining what President Trump described as our “American dominance in space?”
• Chapter 2, “The Politics of the Space Age,” states that “Militaries were pushing the boundaries of ‘peaceful uses’ and avoiding the Outer Space Treaty’s requirement for consultation in advance of harmful activities by claiming their activities were defensive and not subject to the somewhat vague requirements of the treaty (56).” Should the US continue to comply if we believe potential adversaries aren’t? Will the rhetoric revolving around the need for a Space Force imply to other nations that we are preparing to violate the treaty and therefore encourage them to do so?
• “Civil Space: Science and Exploration” is the theme of the third chapter. In keeping with the near utopia of Star Trek, scientists tend to believe that cooperation in space can provide numerous advantages by forming bridges between spacefaring nations and others while benefiting the public (63). With the growing competition between the US, Russia, China, and others, will the efforts of these scientists suffer in response to varying national interests? Will the civil scientific efforts help moderate the militarization of space (81)?
• Chapter 4 deals with “Commercial Space Developments.” Here Moltz discusses the challenges that have developed from the burgeoning and maturing commercial space sector. For example, major problems are emerging with geostationary orbital slots and space traffic control, both of which are related to the growth in the number of nations able to access space. Of the problems mentioned, which present the greatest dilemmas for the US, and how should the US proceed to mitigate them?
• In “Military Space: Expanded Uses and New Risks,” the author presents several space war scenarios (130). Considering the growth of peer competition since the publishing of the book, do you think his scenarios are still useful in analyzing space related threats? Moltz posits that potential adversaries might be deterred from attacking critical military space-based assets as the US would consider such an attack a possible precursor to a nuclear attack. How should the US respond to such an attack? Will the possible US response deter potential rogue actors like North Korea or Iran?
• Chapter 6, “Space Diplomacy,” makes the case that the current space governance framework, constructed mainly under Cold War realities, is fraying and inadequate for the current realities of space usage, capabilities, and competition. As the existing structure falters, should the US pursue a policy of military space dominance, international cooperation, space anarchy, or some alternative (166)?
• In the final chapter of the book, Moltz articulates what he sees as the “Trends and Future Options” for space. Written from the perspective of 2013, he posits that “there is an increasing realization that acquiring such capabilities [space dominance] would undoubtedly involve such enormous costs and strong foreign reaction that they would never be worth it” (190). Is this a realistic assumption to make about the motives, plans, and actions of our peers or the current US administration? If space dominance is not to be pursued, how is the justification of a Space Force affected?
• Building on an Arthur C. Clarke quote, “Only through spaceflight can Mankind find a permanent outlet for its aggressive and pioneering interest,” Moltz proposes that threats of extinction from man-made calamities or inbound space objects will force space cooperation (192). Can the US help facilitate cooperation before the world faces such crises? Does space exploration and potential colonization fall strictly in the civilian realm? Should the Space Force help the US, and the world, prepare for migrating to space in an effort to ensure the survival of man or should their focus be solely on US national interests?