The Accidental SUPERPOWER: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder

Peter Zeihan

Overview: Near the end of the Second World War, the United States moved to change the international system that had been the genesis of two wars in the 20th century. The US moved to end the colonial system and replace it with an open economy protected on the high seas by the US Navy.

In THE ACCIDENTAL SUPERPOWER, Peter Zeihan proposes that the hard rules of geography are eroding the American commitment to free trade. Further, the aging population across the planet will weaken markets and capital supplies, while a vibrant American economy that-alone among the developed nations-is rapidly approaching energy independence. These factors alone are doing nothing less than overturning the global system the US helped create and ushering in a new (dis)order.

For most, the new world order is a disaster-in-waiting, but not for the Americans. The shale revolution allows Americans to sidestep an increasingly dangerous energy market. Unlike the remainder of the world’s powers that are graying, the US's youth population is large enough to enable the US to escape that trend. Finally, the US's is perfectly positioned, geography, to flourish in a de-globalizing world.

• The author proposes that the US has been retreating from the Bretton Woods system that has been in place since World War II, a system it helped establish. Do you agree that the US is in retreat from the Bretton Woods system? Point to examples that prove your case. How has geography played into the development of the US in the 20th/21st Century? The current administration in Washington, D.C. has proposed infrastructure reform. How does this relate to the author’s proposals on economic development?
• Zeihan recounts that in the 19th and early 20th Centuries the European power were too preoccupied with self-annihilation to be concerned with younger countries that would eclipse them. What elements have placed the US in a position, as the author states, “an accidental superpower”? How has the geographical position of the US benefited the nation? How might this contrast to Canada/Mexico and other nations in its geographic set type? What role has deepwater navigation played in the US global development? How did US industrialization play a role?
• As the US entered into WW II it seemed to be at a distinct disadvantage to its European counterparts. However, in short order it placed massive numbers of troops in the field fully equipped to engage in modern warfare. How did this upstart nation find itself in a position of power at the close of the war and what part did “free trade” have to play in the development of the post-WW II world order? How does demographics play into the post-war global development and influence today’s global economy?
• The author points out that the US has a love-hate relationship with the petroleum industry. Again, he discusses the role geography played in the US rise to power. How has shale played in today’s energy industry and what has made it viable in the 21st Century? What role has shale played in the US backing away from Bretton Woods?
• Zeihan details that the last seventy years have been incredible, but that trends is nearly over. He postulates that between 2020 and 2024 “the descent” will begin. How will demographics play a role? What will be the global impact? How will this development contrast in Europe, Middle East, and Asia? How will it impact the US? What other developments might isolate the US from the global disorder?
• The author proposes that post Bretton Woods the world will be broken into six categories: State failure; Decentralization: Degraded; Steady state; Rising Stars; and Aggressive powers. What advantages will the US have during this period? Who might the US find as its “friends” in the world, and how might this contrast to the long list of others? How might the new world status relate to Europe?
• Zeihan point out that the US it has not been internationalized. This contrasts with the norther neighbor. What elements drive Canada’s future and how will it impact the US? In opposition, the southern boarder nation is under assault. What might be Mexico’s future and how will its development effect the US?
• In the coming age, Zeihan states, most governments across the world are going to be suffering from problems at home that challenge their ability to cohere internally. He states that most people in the US see China as the future of the world. What might be factors that make this continued rise problematic? If China falls, as the author proposes, what might be the outcomes? How will the fall impact the US? How will global migration lead to the new disorder? Is the future Zeihan you look forward to? If not, what might be done to alter the outcome?
• Chapters 12-13 identifies a core North Korean perspective that “an absolutist regime needs absolute power, and everything good in life is bequeathed by the government.” The starving people were told it was only by keeping the military well fed that they were kept free from the terrible Americans. How does telling people to solve their own problems go against communist thought? How could individuality lead to party collapse? How would you expose the truth if revealing it meant the possible annihilation of yourself and three generations to include spouse, children, parents, grandparents, siblings, nieces, nephews, and cousins?