The Inevitable

Kevin Kelly

Overview: Kevin Kelly is the founding Editor of Wired Magazine and has been at the forefront of discussing key and emerging issues relating to technologies, their influence on society, and future applications. The Inevitable is a must read for anyone trying to identify, understand, and embrace technological innovations that WILL shape our future. In optimistically identifying the 12 forces that will bring innovation and drive trends, Kelly touches on topics such as artificial intelligence, big data, robots, virtual reality and visualization. These should all be familiar areas of interest to many in a military audience, yet, and probably most importantly, this book argues that we are at the beginning of the journey, and in 30 years, those that follow in our footsteps will look back in envy at what we were able to create and the complex problems we were able to overcome.

• In chapter 1, “Becoming,” Kelly argues that we are all in a constant state of motion and because of this do not notice incremental changes. He terms this state in which we now find ourselves “protopia;” a period of “process and progress” (13). How easy is it to recognize this protopia? Do we even notice it? Kelly believes protopia should be embraced and visualized. How do members of the military and broader defense achieve this without being anchored in the past? Do we spend our time trying to make the past better, or do we embrace now as the beginning and accept that “what’s coming will be different, beyond, and other” (27)?
• Chapter 2, “Cognifying”, is one of the most relevant chapters in the book for warfighting professionals as its focus is on artificial intelligence. When admiring the defense landscape AI is part of our future DNA. Kelly believes that “cheap, powerful, ubiquitous” AI changes everything (29); it accelerates all other technological disruptions and makes it better. How will this apply to systems that involve the delivery of kinetic effect? Should AI be applied the same way to autonomous systems?
• “Flowing” is the title of chapter 3. Kelly here states that data flows constantly over the internet, through apps and streams like “electricity in a superconductive wire” (61). This flow is valuable as a primary unit moving in real time across the cloud. Commercially this is important, music streaming is one example. However, this flow of data is as valuable if not more valuable to military decision makers. While much of the data in the commercial world is free, how do classifications and systems impact flowing in the military context? How should this work in the future?
• In chapter 4, “Screening”, the author believes that the 5 billion digital screens that fill the planet make us “People of the Screen” and not “People of the Book” (86). This is descriptive of a population that prefers to access TV screens, computer screens, iPhone, and virtual reality and sees technology as the solution to all (88). How do you categorize yourself and your organization? Does the move toward virtual reality and augmented reality reinforce Kelly’s argument? What does this mean for learning in Professional Military Education?
• In chapter 5, “Accessing,” using multiple commercial examples, the author proposes that “possession is not as important as it once was. Accessing is more important than ever” (109). Kelly identifies five inevitable trends that accelerate the movement toward accessing; dematerialization, real time on demand, decentralization, platform synergy, and clouds (110-133). What do these five trends mean for defense? Have we already begun to embrace these trends? How do we quench the appetite for access to instant data flow? Are we capable of embracing a more decentralized world that includes the use of cryptocurrency, blockchain technology and greater anonymity? Are we prepared to embrace the emergence of a cloud of clouds, known as an intercloud?
• Moving on from accessing, “Sharing” is the title of chapter 6. Here, the author identifies the current power of sharing as a form of socialism. Digital socialism is an American innovation (136). Harnessing this power in the future will yield value and commercial profit. How can the military harness this in the innovation space?
• Chapter 7, “Filtering”, identifies the challenges of being overwhelmed with data flows, even when filters are accessible. With infinite options, how can we triage our filters? How do we balance human and machine filters? Can AI help with that process in the future?
• In chapter 8, Kelly states “all new technologies derive from a combination of existing technologies.” This process is known as “Remixing.” This means our ability to create future technologies is unlimited (193). This may also mean our adversaries can access and remix technologies with ease. This concept of remixing also applies to data flows and combined with AI may prove to be potent in the future. How do we approach this for research/development?
• Chapter 9 titled “Interacting” provides a brief history about the emergence of virtual reality, accelerated by the benefits of presence and interaction (216). Kelly argues that this technology will grow because of its focus on interaction. This will be expanded by more senses, more intimacy, and more immersion (226). How will this impact military training? How will AI interact with virtual reality? How can we reap the benefits?
• In chapter 10, “Tracking,” Kelly tells us that everything in the future will be tracked. Everything that is manufactured will be connected as part of the internet of things (215). There are currently multiple streams of data that allow us to be tracked, in his words, “data is the new gold in business” (255). What does this mean for OPSEC? How can this interconnectivity be leveraged in the future? How can AI contribute to our understanding and decision making?
• Chapter 11, “Questioning”, begins with an analysis of the emergence of Wikipedia, an example of a large scale social collaboration. Kelly points out that the continued emergence of this type of collaborative concept, accelerated by technology, could lead to “new ways to lie, cheat, steal, spy, and terrorize” as “the most angelic technology can be weaponized” (275). Kelly closes the chapter reminding us that we ask the internet 2 trillion questions every year and receive answers. Technology such as AI and quantum computing will allow us to ask any question and receive an answer (284). Is there such thing as a perfect question? Will questions be more important than answers?
• Finally, chapter 12, “Beginning” closes out the book. Kelly argues that thousands of years from now we will be envied as the era who lived through the first awakening of and convergence of objects and intelligence into a “single supermind” that exceeded all that had proceeded it (291). As a new beginning, how are we going to grasp, cultivate, and embrace these new technologies in a world that is going to be more interconnected and complex than ever before?